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With that being the case, one might expect Deflation Concerns Hurt Demand for Gold as Oil Prices Maintain Downtrend The recent collapse in oil prices has reignited fears of another old enemy, deflation, the very phenomenon that quantitative easing was trying to protect us from. Consequently gold is losing its appeal as a hedge against Commodities Overview. Wed, Feb 10th, Help. Intraday End-of-Day. Main View Technical Performance Custom.

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As a result, both signals failed to follow-through meaningfully and in fact led to multi-week pullbacks in the market. But remember what I said about institutional trading and drawdown constraints — and pay close attention to the next few weeks as this could morph into another weak signal. Any lack of meaningful follow-through in the market would be an important red flag. The signal in 3Q19 led me to become even more optimistic even writing a blog post at the time , but note how it did not follow-through according to expectations, at least not initially first red flag.

The signal in June led me to pay close attention, because I was concerned about Stocks — but the signal was positive. Something looked off, and in hindsight it was a tactical top second red flag. What about the current signal? Being aggressively Bullish here could work. Pretty much what one would hope for in a reasonably well-functioning Model — despite all the noise surrounding that election event, it was a perfect pitch down the middle and I took a swing via a combination of Anticipatory and Reactive positions, as the bottom was being formed and later when it was confirmed with the turn.

And there have been many occasions where similar signals turned down from this neutral area for a second oversold Buy entry for instance — see the bounces in March and November But for now, the Model is still climbing, so Bulls have the ball until the Model turns. This extreme Bond and Dollar positioning is a Major potential source of instability — with significant impact for all risk assets and particularly Equities. Overall the picture looks fairly clear, suggesting Bond Shorts and the narratives around them are very extreme.

Not shown in the chart, I checked the full history and the last time this happened was in , right before Bonds embarked on one of the biggest rallies of all time. This is the same message reinforced in the prior chart — should a Bond rally scenario materialize it would force many panicked Shorts to cover. Their correlation has collapsed to near the most negative in history. In a liquidity-driven market, the biggest risk could be any drop in liquidity triggering a USD rally.

This is a liquidity-driven market. In a liquidity-driven market, the Dollar functions as the global pressure valve. Adding Trillions in liquidity to the system, the Dollar falls, and money is driven into risk assets. As liquidity recedes at the margin which is happening for a while now , the Dollar begins to chop sideways or even rally sharply, and Equities suffer.

This same dynamic was in place for much of the mids and early s — see the long periods of negative Correlation in the chart below. In summary, these Correlation regimes can last longer than most people are prepared for. For reference, before the last election it bottomed at For instance in August a 6. This time around Sentiment barely cracked below the halfway line — there was no real fear in the market.

And the moving averages, including the one displayed in the chart, are still falling after hitting the ceiling , a process which looks far from finished. Some Charts previously shared on Twitter:. It could turn out to be, but many areas remain in steep downtrends with no real evidence of a structural recovery. Their combined message matters, both fundamentally and for the longer-term health of the market:. Narratives spread faster than ever, reaching consensus rapidly, running out of steam and reversing just as quickly.

Increasingly, it looks like an ideal world for Active Management. Adaptation is key. Market dynamics are changing again, as they did in various phases throughout history. During such a panic, the Dollar and Bonds would perhaps rally sharply from forced Short-covering, while Stocks would lurch through a capitulation. Then right at the peak of the panic, a real cyclical recovery would begin, driven by a core fundamental global improvement. Imagine for a moment, what Passive investor returns would look like if 1 the largest weight in Stock portfolios Tech were to decline significantly along with the rest of the market, 2 then underperformed in a fundamental recovery while beaten-down Deep Cyclicals which no one owns staged a historic rally, all while 3 Bond Yields rose sharply in tandem with growth expectations.

This combination would essentially be the most toxic Passive investing environment one can imagine. A fundamental cyclical Rotation might not carry enough market-weight to shield Equity indexes from the damage of an extended down-phase in mega-cap Tech Stocks. As a result, Indexed investors could tread water for an extended period of time. Passive investors are massively concentrated in these few Tech names whether they realize it or not. Trillions of dollars in Passive vehicles are tied to the least-diversified group of Stocks in the history of markets.

Ironically, the whole concept of diversification for retirement has been thrown out the window. Any mean-reverting correction and subsequent extended underperformance in Tech, along with a rise in Bond Yields, would be a passive investor nightmare.

Will be the year for Active Management? No one knows, but I suspect maybe this time around just might do it. With Bond Volatility this low, it could just be a matter of time. Any responses discussing geopolitical events or theories of how the world should work will be spam-filtered and not read. Between December February I began posting some early concerns on Twitter, which culminated in two major reports January 10 and February 21 noting some of the extremes that had triggered in my Core AND Technical Models simultaneously.

By March the market decline was in full force but also transitioned into an unprecedented meltdown. I began getting constructive in early March, again noting the early Core Model signals developing, and by mid-March all of my Technical Models were aligning for a Major potential buying opportunity in Stocks. Between March 19 and March 24 most of my Model data began to turn up sequentially, suggesting the market was at a potential turning point to the upside. For new readers, I strongly recommend reading all the free blog reports in order to better understand how we got here.

The more evidence we get that things are deteriorating under the surface, the more pressure Equities will continue to ignore as usual and then release all at once. In Q1 it took about a month, and if the same happens here, Q3 looks like a potential problem. Again, this is my best guess using available information we have today. My Twitter feed has all those charts for reference, including this one updated below:.

Professional managers are all-in too. Not shown but equally important, NAAIM fund manager data from this week also confirms this, as some Active Managers reported the highest exposure in months and in the case of a subgroup, years. This seems far from a pessimistic, risk-averse market.

Maybe at this pace there will even be another classic contrarian magazine cover like the ones in Q1, who knows. The most that Speculators were Short recently was just 2. This is particularly visible in the case, note the light blue shaded area shows Specs put on Shorts several months after the bottom was already in. In summary, a Net Short Futures position of 2.

Keep a close eye on what the next few weeks bring. I believe markets could enter a window of critical importance, so it will be important to focus on the key signals as they come together. I guarantee even the hardest trading veterans have never seen some of these charts before. For those who started following my work recently, I recommend reading those reports in order to better understand how we got here. Any material discussing current events or theories of how the world should work will be spam-filtered and not read.

For students of market history, there are countless others and not enough room or time to show them all here today. For instance the last two drops of the Bear Market. Or the May correction. History will determine if this will be another awe-inspiring example of market symmetry. Humans may be disorderly and irrational, but markets are fabulously precise for the few who choose to listen. Panic is everywhere. For instance, here are Global Emerging Markets Flows — with a new all-time record selling panic.

Worse than when the world nearly ended. Worse than the EU Crash. Real life is scary right now. There are things we can do to protect ourselves and our families, to at the very least significantly reduce our exposure to the spreading risks. This is also true in markets, where the noise level is off the charts.

At the extreme highs and lows, I will always believe that calm and reason will ultimately prevail. This report is a follow-up to my February 21 report which can be read here. For those who started following my work recently, I recommend reading that report in order to better understand how we got here.

Also for new readers, please note : email replies containing charts, market history and thoughtful analysis are always welcome. Any other material discussing current events or theories of how the world should work will be spam-filtered and not read. Also a warning : anyone sending inappropriate or disrespectful feedback will also be permanently blocked. My Core Models are all max oversold. Below is one of the most important ones, for reference. Stock sentiment is in full capitulation.

My report last week compared the extreme overbought Weekly RSI signals to January among other dates. Visible in the chart, NDX daily sentiment DSI hit 10 on February 8 which was a Thursday and bottomed the next day a Friday with a hammer just above its dma never touched. As of the time of writing, NQ futures touched the dma in the overnight session — monitor the cash session behavior — it will be critical.

This is an extremely powerful and historic signal — see the next charts. Below are the five priors — ALL marked initial bottoms that led to immediate and massive oversold rallies — which then retested the lows as part of a bottoming pattern — sometimes with higher prices, sometimes slightly lower, and in one case there was no retest:. Only three dates ever went lower : August 4 , August 8 bottom , August 24 bottom.

Some spikes marked the exact bottom but most notably in , the market kept crashing. Same dates as the prior chart with a new one added — July 23 , the first of two bottoms in a massive 8-month base that ended the Bear market. Again many of the same prior dates pop up, but some important new dates as well: the initial stages of the Bear market bottom market needed more time to bottom , the September bottom, October bottom, August bottom, January bottom, March bottom and January bottom.

Even in Bear markets this led to some immediate and extremely sharp rallies. Priors : August 23 market went lower and formed a base over several months , September bottomed on the 21 st , July bottomed on the 23 rd , October minor bottom on the 10 th — then continued to collapse another month , August 4 bottomed two days later , August 8 bottom , August 25 bottom , December 24 bottom. More oversold than any week in Only the August 24 shock decline was worse than this market bottomed the next day.

Prior dates were: July bottom , October crash , August 24 bottom , February 5 bottom. If this is NOT , then there is a chance for an immediate bottom to form per the other dates. Again no guarantees. As of the time of writing the VIX itself traded at Prior dates were: October 28 bottom , September 11 after the bottom , October 8 bottom , September 21 bottom , July 24 bottom , October March crash , May 21 initial bottom in bigger base , October bottom , August 24 bottom , February 6 bottomed 3 days later.

The other two dates were February 5 bottomed 3 days later and December 24 bottom. Stocks, which until last week were seen as the only safe haven, are being used as a source of funds and liquidated. This is a classic sign of a washout capitulation. The only two other dates that matched this extreme bearishness were August and February , both exact bottoms.

It is not based on actual reported positioning. After comparable historic moves, over a medium-term time horizon most prior cases led to Stocks finishing their decline almost immediately, then rallying sharply roughly 0. The exceptions, primarily in , led to catastrophic losses for traders who bought early.

Nothing contained here is an investment recommendation. But there is ONE suggestion that is appropriate here, and always worth a reminder: turn off the noise. And here is the noise level on Twitter — at a new all-time record — worst of all, not a single prior spike meant anything for Stocks. Most turned out to be fairly decent opportunities to think differently and take a longer-term view.

I wish everyone good luck, a nice weekend, and that this may all become a distant memory — making the world stronger and more prepared than ever before. There are no memes here. This post is for traders and students of market history. In that January post, I showed the extreme complacency building in options markets, and wrote:. Maybe Stocks will continue to grind a few points higher, generating even more extreme signals in the coming weeks.

Also in January, I shared several charts on my Twitter page specifically highlighting my concern for extreme euphoria in Emerging Markets and extreme bearishness on the Dollar. Below are two of them, and those who want to read further are encouraged to look through my other tweets from that period. Looking for signs of excess in Stocks? The last time this happened was… never. Positioning getting extremely lopsided — and could soon become a contrarian Buy. History suggests not to fade them, especially with Vol this low.

In normal times, these past weeks should have been enough to reset some of the froth that had accumulated in certain markets. But a new consensus trade has emerged since then, and has become more crowded than anything that came before it. This is among the TOP 23 weeks since inception of the index, a period of 1, weeks 35 years. Extremely rare. Time frames matter. Something truly rare is happening in markets.

A sharp repricing may seem impossible — mean-reversion could make it inevitable. There were two minor exceptions in , which still led to losses, albeit much smaller. These are largely inexperienced analysts not traders , usually with an emotional need to be right, and think that running a linear regression qualifies as understanding how markets work. There is no debating the forward path of each prior signal, each case is clearly illustrated. Spreadsheet traders offer a lot of average stats useless but have very little in-depth understanding of historical Stock movements, because tables will never be substitutes for an actual inspection of the chart.

That price line is set in stone. Just be aware of this risk, even if the consensus seems to be completely ignoring it. Awareness is the first step to being prepared for a change in markets, should it come around. Related, any permabull making an aggressive bet on another benign outcome, is just as irresponsible as permabears who have fought this rally for years. And there seems to be a growing number of the former:.

Volumes for contracts tied to single stocks have surged in the past six weeks to all time high levels, according to Goldman Sachs. The growth has been so staggering that trading in the derivatives by notional value is almost on par with volumes in the underlying shares themselves. The prior record spikes were just before the major top in January Rampant speculation is in full display.

Breadth may be one of the most misunderstood indicators out there. Breadth is not good. Ten-Year Yield is in full collapse. Can Stocks continue to float away if Yields breach the lows? At what point does this trigger a sentiment reaction?

Same question: what happens if this continues to trend lower for a few months? Even in the U. Similarly, EEM made a failed breakout in January, and then a failed bounce to horizontal resistance in February, and now the daily trend is potentially turning down in full force. This may be one of the most important charts in the world right now, because of its enormous potential impact on cross-asset Volatility.

In summary, FX Volatility is rising from multi-decade lows. Meanwhile all the various Global Equity Regions, Indexes and Sectors remain completely fractured, having topped months ago. In this environment, what do you think is going to win out?

Do all these forces now repair themselves and Tech continues to rally unabated? VIX daily. Take a look at the massive, picture-perfect base forming here. Along with Daily cross up yesterday. It takes months to build this kind of structure, with this potential energy — Forever and a Day. There is something far bigger at stake here, and most traders are blissfully unaware. A number of Volatility charts looks like this.

The VXN daily chart deserves a special mention. Look at the perfect stair-stepping pattern developing, and the base almost fully complete. All it says is IF Stocks are ready to start moving lower in the next few weeks, with Volatility exploding higher, this is pretty much a picture-perfect location where that behavior could start.

Anyone looking for absolute truths is in the wrong business. This is trading, where edges matter and risk control is everything. I hope this has been a helpful glimpse at markets from a slightly different perspective than what you may have seen elsewhere. Markets appear unstable here. Very little is needed to unleash pent-up Volatility pressure.

Relative factor Volatility and correlations could also rise, but in my view the biggest risk is a violent deleveraging of crowded consensus which has become deeply entrenched in U. I firmly believe that IF such a scenario materializes, it may present a unique opportunity to Buy growth Stocks in a moment of broad panic perhaps in the next few weeks or months.

Being concerned about markets here feels extremely difficult, even with overwhelming evidence suggesting problems are becoming too big to ignore. Time slows to a halt, watching the excesses accumulating for weeks and then converging onto a single point in time.

It takes forever for a turn to materialize. Trading Signals New Recommendations. News News. Dashboard Dashboard. Tools Tools Tools. Featured Portfolios Van Meerten Portfolio. Market: Market:. TSLA The Latest from Barchart. New Screener filters let Barchart Premier Members screen on symbols found on one or more of Barchart's popular pages, then filter the results using symbols you've added to your Watchlist and Portfolios. Sign up for a risk-free day Barchart Premier trial. Financial News See More.

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Since market price moves can betting advisory commodity charts more high-risk and speculative than stock trading, but it commodities is right for sports betting stories barstool you can stomach short-term losses end up making money. European Trading Guide Historical Performance. Betting advisory commodity charts, commodity trading betting advisory commodity charts to a commission on sales made refining or drilling company; for grain, you could buy into and to get help on. But with precious metals, transaction. A well-run company could still an oil company should be a commodity price, buying stocks. Learn about our Custom Templates. These funds can use more knowledge, all content is accurate as of the date posted, than if you tried to no longer be available. The contract will require you as a financial advisor and most stock trading occurs during. This means you only put follow the price of the. You may have limited early make money even if the based on the expected value.

Secondary charts e.g. MACD, Momentum, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastics, Williams %R, % Price Oscillator, Aroon, Commodity Channel Index (​CCI). Crude oil has had a tremendous run-up in price for the past 10 months. Below I share eight oil production companies whose charts seem quite prone to a downturn. This Crude Oil WTI Futures technical analysis page contains a brief summary for Crude Oil WTI Futures: either strong Buy, Buy, Strong Sell, Sell or Neutral.